2026 State of Origin Predictions, Series Preview & Schedule
NSW won Game 1 on the bell thanks to a stunning James Tedesco try against a 12-man QLD team. Kalyn Ponga was sent off with 23 minutes remaining in the game and the Blues trailing 20-6.
Now the story shifts to Game 2 in Melbourne and all the variables that contributed to the result in Sydney are being weighed up to try and predict a result.
Now the story shifts to Game 2 in Melbourne and all the variables that contributed to the result in Sydney are being weighed up to try and predict a result.
Why NSW Are Still Favourites
The Blues hold a 1-0 series lead. Whether it was because QLD were undermanned or not doesn't matter. If they win Game 2 the series is done.
The debate will rage on for the rest of the year whether or not Kalyn Ponga deserved to be sent off and whether NSW would have made the comeback if QLD had 13 men on the park for the final 10 minutes of the game.
The same could be said reagrding the copious amount of dropped ball the Blues had in the first half which granted the Maroons opportunities to score points. It is more likely that NSW are more disciplined in their attack this time around and the weather won't play as large a role.
Why Queensland Still Can’t Be Dismissed
The Maroons were outstanding in the first half, well up until the point when Ponga was sent from the field. They defended with passion, took their scoring opportunites and looked like the better side.
They forced errors from the Blues in their own half and were the more dominant team for the majority of the match. This is a large chance of happening again and the changes in the Blues forward rotations point to NSW trying to manage that domination.
They forced errors from the Blues in their own half and were the more dominant team for the majority of the match. This is a large chance of happening again and the changes in the Blues forward rotations point to NSW trying to manage that domination.
QLD also have better finishers on the edges. If it comes down to a 1 try game, QLD are more equipped to be able to produce a moment of individual brilliance that gets them across the line.
2026 State of Origin Series Schedule
The 2026 series will again be played across three Wednesday night blockbusters.
| Game | Matchup | Venue | City | Date | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | NSW vs QLD | Accor Stadium | Sydney | Wednesday 27 May 2026 | 8:05 PM AEST |
| Game 2 | NSW vs QLD | MCG | Melbourne | Wednesday 17 June 2026 | 8:05 PM AEST |
| Game 3 | QLD vs NSW | Suncorp Stadium | Brisbane | Wednesday 8 July 2026 | 8:05 PM AEST |
2026 State of Origin Betting Predictions
The best betting value early in the series market sits around NSW winning 2-1.
A Blues sweep is possible, particularly if Queensland struggle to settle the halves combination, but Origin history suggests outright domination is rare when the Maroons are involved.
Queensland’s ability to rise in chaotic, emotional contests means they remain extremely dangerous at Suncorp Stadium.
Best Early Series Bets
- NSW to Win Series
- NSW 2-1 Correct Score
- Under Total Series Points markets if lines inflate
- NSW forwards in Player of the Series betting
As squads are confirmed and Game 1 approaches, player markets and game-specific handicaps should offer stronger value opportunities than the outright series market itself.
Wally Lewis Medal Predictions
The Wally Lewis Medal market has increasingly become dominated by forwards and middle-third players.
As Origin football slows into territory, ruck speed and defensive control, high-minute middles now influence games more consistently than flashy outside backs. That trend should continue in 2026.
If NSW win the series, players like Hudson Young, Isaah Yeo or potentially Addin Fonua-Blake loom as serious contenders depending on final eligibility and selection outcomes.
Nathan Cleary will naturally attract heavy support, but halfbacks often need signature moments in winning games to secure medal votes.
For Queensland, Cameron Munster remains the obvious danger if the Maroons upset the market. His ability to completely control momentum swings and emotional moments makes him one of the few backs consistently capable of winning the award in a losing-forward era.
2026 State of Origin FAQ's
When does the 2026 State of Origin series start?
The men’s Origin series kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at Accor Stadium in Sydney.
Where are the 2026 State of Origin games played?
Game 1 is at Accor Stadium (Sydney), Game 2 at the MCG (Melbourne) and Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane).
Who are favourites to win the 2026 series?
New South Wales are early favourites, priced around $1.65 in the series winner market with Queensland the underdogs after the Dearden injury news.
Have the State of Origin eligibility rules changed?
Yes. The 2026 update separates Origin eligibility from international allegiance, which we’ve explained in detail in our State of Origin eligibility rules guide.