NRL Round 24 Tips: Best Bets and Predictions for Every Game
Round 24 has thrown up some interesting betting lines as the race to September gets serious.
The market is asking Newcastle and the Dolphins to cover big numbers, while the Roosters arrive at Penrith in outstanding form and Canberra get a double-digit start despite scoring freely over the past month.
Rather than simply siding with the favourites, there looks to be better value taking points in several games this week.
Here are our best NRL Round 24 tips and predictions for every game.
Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors
Best Bet: Warriors -7.5
Brisbane have been difficult to trust over the past month, losing four of their last five while conceding more than 25 points per game.
The Warriors are travelling in the opposite direction. They have won four of their last five, conceding just 10.8 points per game across that stretch, and already dismantled Brisbane 42-12 earlier this season.
A trip to Suncorp always carries some danger, but the Warriors' current advantage through the middle should give them enough opportunities to cover the line.
Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Best Bet: Over 42.5 Points
This total looks low enough to attack. South Sydney have scored 24.4 points per game across their last five but have also conceded 28 per game, creating the right profile for another open contest.
The first meeting between these sides this season produced 56 points when Souths won 32-24. Canterbury should create their share of chances here, and the Rabbitohs have enough attacking quality to contribute at the other end.
Over 42.5 looks the better option than trying to split two inconsistent sides.
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders
Best Bet: Canberra +10.5
Cronulla deserve to be favourites, but giving Canberra more than ten points looks generous. The Sharks have won four of the past five meetings and have been outstanding recently, averaging 36.4 points across their last five matches.
Canberra, however, are hardly struggling for points themselves. The Raiders are averaging 34.4 over the same period and have enough attacking weapons to stay involved even if Cronulla control the game. The Sharks can win without necessarily blowing Canberra away, making the +10.5 the preferred play.
Manly Sea Eagles vs Dolphins
Best Bet: Manly +8.5
Neither side enters this game in particularly convincing form, which makes an 8.5-point start for Manly difficult to ignore. The Sea Eagles have lost five straight, but their recent record against the Dolphins is excellent. Manly won 52-18 earlier this season and have won three of the four meetings between the clubs.
The Dolphins deserve favouritism, but they have been inconsistent themselves and recently suffered a huge defeat. At Brookvale, Manly getting more than a converted try looks the value.
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans
Best Bet: Gold Coast Titans +11.5
This might be the most interesting line of Round 24. Newcastle have been competitive without putting teams away, with three of their last five matches decided by two points or fewer.
Gold Coast have won two of their past three and their recent numbers through the middle suggest they can make this far more competitive than the market expects.
Newcastle smashed the Titans 36-12 earlier this season, but asking them to cover 11.5 this time around looks excessive. Take the points with Gold Coast.
Parramatta Eels vs North QLD Cowboys
Best Bet: Parramatta Eels +4.5
Parramatta have quietly built an excellent recent record against North Queensland. The Eels have won four of the last five meetings, including a 33-30 victory in Townsville earlier this season, and have won the last three clashes between these teams at Parramatta.
North Queensland's defence is the major concern. The Cowboys have conceded 30.8 points per game across their last five and have been badly exposed when matches have opened up. This looks much closer to a genuine 50-50 contest than the line suggests, making Parramatta +4.5 appealing.
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
Best Bet: Over 40.5 Points
This is the standout totals play of the round. The Roosters arrive on a five-game winning streak and have averaged 33.4 points per game across that run. Penrith are still producing more than 25 points per game themselves over their last five.
There is plenty of history pointing towards Penrith dominating this matchup, including a 40-4 win earlier this season, but the Roosters are playing considerably better football now. With the line sitting at only 40.5, both teams don't need to completely cut loose for the Over to land.
Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Best Bet: St George Illawarra +1.5
It's difficult to back the Tigers in their current form. Wests have lost five straight and are averaging just 7.8 points per game during that stretch while conceding 32 per game.
The Dragons haven't exactly been dominant, but they have already beaten the Tigers 24-10 this season and have won four of the last five meetings between the clubs. With very little separating them in the market, taking St George Illawarra with the small start makes the most sense.
Best Rd 24 Bets
- Warriors -7.5 vs Broncos
- Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs Over 42.5
- Raiders +10.5 vs Sharks
- Sea Eagles +8.5 vs Dolphins
- Titans +11.5 vs Knights
- Eels +4.5 vs Cowboys
- Panthers vs Roosters Over 40.5
- Dragons +1.5 vs Tigers