NRL Round 23 Over/Under Tips: Best Totals Bets for Every Game
The totals market often provides the best betting value each week, and Round 23 features several games where our model differs from the bookmaker's line.
From expected defensive battles to potential shootouts, we've analysed every matchup using our projected totals, recent scoring trends and key team statistics to find the best Over and Under bets.
Here are the best Over/Under bets for NRL Round 23.
Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys
Best Bet: Over 48.5 Points
Our model projects 51.2 total points, comfortably above the current market line. Gold Coast have improved offensively over the past month, while the Cowboys have conceded 112 points across their last two games. Even if North Queensland tighten defensively, both teams have enough attacking quality to push this game over the total.
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers
Best Bet: Under 42.5 Points
Our model has this finishing around 41 points, and everything points towards a finals-style grind. The Warriors rank among the NRL's best defensive sides, while Penrith continue to suffocate opponents through field position. Four of the past five meetings have been decided by defence rather than attack.
Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Best Bet: Over 46.5 Points
The Roosters are averaging 34 points per game across their last five matches and own the competition's fourth-ranked attack. Canterbury's defence has improved dramatically, but they've also scored 26 points per game over the same period. Our model projects this to finish above the posted total.
Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles
Best Bet: Under 44.5 Points
Our model expects a low-scoring contest. Melbourne continue to battle injuries across the spine, while Manly have relied on defence during their recent resurgence. Four of the Storm's last five games have finished below this number.
Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos
Best Bet: Over 49.5 Points
The Dolphins rank inside the competition's top six for points scored and line breaks, while Brisbane's defence has struggled badly over the past month. Our model projects the Dolphins to do most of the scoring, making the Over the preferred play.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels
Best Bet: Over 47.5 Points
South Sydney lead the competition in line breaks, while Parramatta continue to leak points defensively. The Rabbitohs have scored 32 points in the earlier meeting this season, and our model expects another open contest.
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders
Best Bet: Over 46.5 Points
Both teams enter in strong attacking form. Newcastle have become one of the competition's most improved attacking sides, while Canberra continue to score consistently through their powerful middle forwards. Our model projects the total just above the bookmaker's line.
Cronulla Sharks vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Best Bet: Over 47.5 Points
Cronulla are averaging almost 39 points per game during their five-match winning streak and have scored at least 34 points in four of those victories. Even if the Dragons contribute only a couple of tries, our model still expects this game to clear the total comfortably.
Best Totals Bets
- Titans vs Cowboys — Over
- Warriors vs Panthers — Under
- Roosters vs Bulldogs — Over
- Storm vs Sea Eagles — Under
- Dolphins vs Broncos — Over
- Rabbitohs vs Eels — Over
- Knights vs Raiders — Over
- Sharks vs Dragons — Over