NRL Round 16 Tips 2026: Best Bets, Predictions and Try Scorer Picks

NRL Round 16 brings a full weekend of betting opportunities, with several teams looking to consolidate their place in the top 8 and others trying to keep their season alive.

There is value across a mix of markets this week. Some favourites look well placed to cover, while a handful of underdogs and totals stand out as better plays than simply backing the short-priced head-to-head options.

Here are the best NRL Round 16 tips, predictions and betting plays.

Newcastle look one of the strongest plays of the round against a St George Illawarra side that continues to struggle for points. The Dragons are averaging just 14.0 points per game this season and have scored more than 16 points only twice in their last 13 matches.

The Knights smashed the Dragons 44-10 earlier this season and have averaged 36.0 points across their last five games. With Bradman Best returning and Newcastle's attack humming, the Knights are well placed to win this by 13+.

Best is also the standout try scorer play. He gives Newcastle strike on the edge and should get enough clean attacking ball against the worst defensive side in the competition.

The Dolphins are flying and can extend their winning streak to seven against a Tigers side that has not been able to match the better teams defensively.

The Phins are averaging 37 points per game during their current six-game winning streak and have conceded just 13 points per game in that same run. Five of their last six victories have come by 13+ points, which makes the -6.5 line look very playable.

Herbie Farnworth scored in the most recent matchup against Wests and has scored in two of his last three games. He is the best try scorer option in a Dolphins attack that should create plenty of chances.

Penrith are clearly the better side, but this number looks big enough to take the Titans at home.

Gold Coast have covered this line in three straight games and have also covered in three of their last four against Penrith. The Panthers should still win, but the Titans have enough in them to stay inside a 13.5-point start.

The total also shapes as an Under game, with four of Penrith's last five and five of Gold Coast's last seven going Under the Game Total.

Phillip Sami is the best player prop. He has scored in three straight games and scored twice in his most recent outing against Penrith, while 76% of opposition tries against the Panthers have come on the edges.

Manly look the stronger side and can effectively end Canterbury's season with another strong performance in this matchup.

The Sea Eagles are 4-1 ATS across the last five head-to-head meetings, while six of the last 10 regular season games between these sides have finished with a 13+ margin. Manly have the better attacking weapons and a clear edge if Tom Trbojevic returns at fullback.

Turbo is the obvious try scorer play. He has scored 14 tries in 13 games against Canterbury, including four games with multiple tries, and the Bulldogs have allowed a try to an opposing fullback in two of their last four matches.

The Warriors deserve favouritism at home, but the line looks too big against a Cowboys side that has enough quality to keep this close.

North Queensland +10.5 is the value play, with this matchup projecting much tighter than the market suggests. The Under 50.5 is also appealing, with four of the Warriors' last five games producing 50 points or fewer.

Te Maire Martin is the try scorer angle. He has scored in four straight games and remains one of the more interesting value options in a contest that should be decided by field position and finishing chances.

Melbourne are finding form at the right time and look well placed to cover against a Canberra side that has struggled badly in attack.

The Storm have won four of their last five and have scored 94 points across their last three home games. Canberra, meanwhile, are averaging just 15.6 points and have failed to score more than 20 points in four of their last five.

That makes Melbourne -8.5 the clear betting angle, with Canberra Under 20.5 also in play.

Moses Leo is the best try scorer option. He has scored five tries in his last four appearances and should get chances if Melbourne's attack continues to roll at AAMI Park.

Cronulla have won four straight, but the Roosters look a strong bounce-back play at Allianz Stadium.

The Roosters beat Cronulla 34-22 earlier this season and get key Origin players back for this clash. The reduced line makes Sydney appealing at home, especially against a Sharks side that has been winning but not always putting teams away.

The Under 49.5 is also worth noting, with Cronulla's last five games averaging just 43.2 total points.

Mark Nawaqanitawase is the player prop to target. He has scored three doubles in his last four matches and remains one of the most dangerous finishers in the NRL.