AFL Round 23 Tips 2026: Best Bets for Every Game
Only 2 rounds of the regular season left to play and one final Wild Card spot left to play for. A win for Carlton this week would see them clinch while a big injury to the Saints looks to have closed the door on a late sneak-in.
In betting terms, there are a couple of totals we really like, while some sizeable lines late in the season have opened the door to backing underdogs with a healthy start. Sydney also look primed to put another struggling Essendon side to the sword, although the enormous handicap makes the winning margin market more appealing.
Here are our AFL Round 23 tips and best bets for every match this weekend.
Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows
Best Bet: Over 168.5 Game Total
This should be one of the better games of Round 23 and there is enough attacking form on both sides to favour the Over. Fremantle have averaged 102.6 points across their past five games, while Adelaide are sitting at 99.4 over the same stretch.
The projected total is 171.9 points, slightly above the current total, and both teams have shown they can pile on a score when given enough opportunities. Rather than trying to split two sides in strong form, Over 168.5 looks the cleaner play.
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
Best Bet: St Kilda Saints -22.5 Line
Richmond's season looks to be limping towards the finish line. The Tigers have lost four of their past five and are being beaten by an average of 34.2 points during that stretch, with their scoring dropping to just 60.6 points per game.
St Kilda have hardly been bulletproof themselves, but they have won the past five meetings between these clubs, including by 36 points earlier this season. We have the Saints winning by closer to five goals, so there is enough room to back them at -22.5.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats
Best Bet: Over 177.5 Game Total
This is one of our favourite totals of the round, with both sides capable of doing enough to push the game comfortably beyond 177.5.
Geelong are averaging 101.2 points across their past five and have won four straight, while North Melbourne have still managed 81.2 points per game despite winning only once in that period. We have this finishing somewhere around the 190-point mark, and North should only need to make a reasonable contribution for the Over to land.
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns
Best Bet: Over 186.5 Game Total
The QClash has all the ingredients for a shootout and this is probably our favourite bet of Round 23.
Brisbane are averaging 114.2 points across their past five games and have topped 120 three times during that run. Gold Coast's defence has become increasingly vulnerable as well, and we would not be surprised to see this push beyond 200 total points if the Suns can contribute at the other end. The 186.5 line looks very gettable.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies
Best Bet: Collingwood Magpies +19.5 Line
Hawthorn are in excellent form and deserve to start favourites, but asking them to give Collingwood almost 20 points feels a little aggressive.
The Magpies have won four of their past five and continue to find ways to stay in games, particularly when the pressure ramps up. Hawthorn may still get the victory, but we see this being closer to a two or three-goal game than a comfortable Hawks win. Getting +19.5 with Collingwood is plenty.
Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons
Best Bet: Port Adelaide +24.5 Line
There is no disguising Port Adelaide's recent form. They have lost five straight and are being beaten by an average of 42 points, but that poor run appears to have pushed this line a little too far.
Melbourne have won four of their past five, although they have not exactly been blowing everyone away. We still expect the Demons to win, but something around a two-goal margin feels more realistic than five goals or more. Taking +24.5 with Port gives us a big enough cushion to get involved.
GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles
Best Bet: GWS Giants -33.5 Line
GWS have been frustratingly inconsistent, but this is the sort of matchup they should be able to control at home. West Coast have lost five straight and are conceding 98.4 points per game across that period.
The Giants have also produced some huge home wins against West Coast in recent seasons, winning by 59, 81 and 65 points before the Eagles turned the tables earlier this year. We have GWS winning by around six goals this time, which puts the -33.5 line right in play.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs +6.5
This looks much closer than the market suggests. Carlton come in with three straight wins and are scoring freely again, but the Bulldogs have also won three of their past five and there is very little separating these teams on recent form.
Carlton deserve to start favourites, although we see this as essentially a 50-50 contest. Getting a full goal with the Bulldogs is therefore difficult to ignore, and the +6.0 gives us some protection if Carlton scrape home in a tight one.
Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans
Best Bet: Sydney Swans 40+ Winning Margin
There are big lines, and then there is the 60.5 points Sydney are being asked to cover here. The Swans can absolutely destroy Essendon, but needing them to win by more than ten goals is still a huge ask.
Essendon's recent numbers are ugly. They have lost four of their past five by 67, 72, 93 and 90 points and are conceding 121.4 points per game across their last five. We have Sydney winning by somewhere around ten goals, so the 40+ winning margin gives us a much more forgiving way to back another comfortable Swans victory.