AFL Round 22 Tips 2026: Best Bets for Every Game
Round 22 arrives with plenty on the line as the finals race heats up and every result starts to carry extra weight.
There are several heavyweight clashes across the weekend, highlighted by Brisbane hosting Hawthorn, Melbourne taking on ladder leaders Fremantle and Geelong looking to continue its charge against Essendon. Our best bets this week include a mix of line plays, totals and head-to-head selections, with several games offering strong value despite some big market numbers.
Here are our AFL Round 22 tips and best bets for every match this weekend.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Best Bet: Under 171.5 Total Points
Neither side has been especially reliable in attack lately, with the Bulldogs averaging 72.8 points and North Melbourne 71.6 across their past five games. The Bulldogs have also conceded only 70.8 points per game during that stretch, so this could become a fairly controlled contest if they get on top around the clearances.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks
Best Bet: Hawthorn Hawks Head-to-Head
Hawthorn’s recent form gives them every chance of taking this one on the road. The Hawks have won four of their past five, averaging 109.2 points while conceding only 67.6, and hold the statistical advantage through disposals, intercepts and tackling. Brisbane remain dangerous at home, but Hawthorn’s balance across the ground makes them worth backing.
Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers
Best Bet: Under 176.5 Total Points
Fremantle’s defence is the key to this bet, with the Dockers conceding only 68 points per game across their past five. They have also kept four straight opponents below 80 during their current winning run. Melbourne have been scoring freely, but Fremantle’s ability to slow teams down and deny clean attacking entries gives the under a chance.
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power
Best Bet: Sydney Swans -35.5
Sydney are expected to control this game and have enough attacking class to push the margin beyond six goals. Port Adelaide have struggled to match the stronger sides consistently, while the Swans have already produced wins of 51 and 35 points during their past five outings. The line is big, but Sydney should create enough scoring opportunities at home.
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers
Best Bet: Geelong Cats -64.5
Geelong have dominated this matchup, winning the past five meetings by an average of almost 58 points. Four of those victories came by at least 44, while Essendon continue to struggle defensively against quality opposition. Geelong should spend most of the game in their forward half and have enough firepower to cover.
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers
Best Bet: Richmond Tigers +57.5
Adelaide should win comfortably, but this is still a huge number to cover. Richmond have lost four of their past five, although three of their past six results have stayed inside this line, including a recent 11-point win and a two-point loss. Adelaide may get the result wrapped up early without necessarily keeping the pressure on for four quarters.
GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Suns
Best Bet: Gold Coast Suns +18.5
Gold Coast’s results have been poor, but they have remained inside this line in four of their past five games. The Suns’ recent losses have included margins of six, nine, nine and 13 points, while GWS have been extremely inconsistent and average a negative margin across their past five. The Giants can win without putting Gold Coast away.
West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies
Best Bet: Collingwood Magpies -21.5
West Coast have lost five straight and are being beaten by an average of 29.2 points during that run. Collingwood have won four of their past five and hold clear advantages in disposals and tackling. The Magpies have also won the past four meetings, including three victories by 29 points or more.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues
Best Bet: Carlton Blues -4.5
Carlton have won three of their past five and should take confidence from their most recent 76-point victory. The Blues also hold useful advantages through turnovers and intercepts, which could help them generate scoring opportunities from St Kilda mistakes. It is a risky selection given the Saints’ recent form, but Carlton have enough attacking quality to cover a small line.
AFL Round 22 Best Bets Summary
- Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne — Under 171.5
- Brisbane vs Hawthorn — Hawthorn Head-to-Head
- Melbourne vs Fremantle — Under 176.5
- Sydney vs Port Adelaide — Sydney -35.5
- Geelong vs Essendon — Geelong -64.5
- Adelaide vs Richmond — Richmond +57.5
- GWS vs Gold Coast — Gold Coast +18.5
- West Coast vs Collingwood — Collingwood -21.5
- St Kilda vs Carlton — Carlton -4.5