AFL Round 16 Tips 2026: Best Bets for Every Game
Round 16 marks the end of the bye rounds and there are some strong betting angles across the board.
The strongest plays come through the totals market, particularly Brisbane vs Sydney and Fremantle vs Gold Coast, while Collingwood shapes as the standout line bet of the weekend.
Here are the best bets for every game of AFL Round 16.
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans
Best Bet: Over 183.5 Total Points
This feels like the game of the round and it should produce plenty of scoring. Sydney have already beaten Brisbane comfortably once this season, while the Lions are under pressure to keep their finals hopes alive. With both sides capable of piling on goals quickly, the over looks the best play.
Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS Giants
Best Bet: Over 172.5 Total Points
These sides have developed a habit of producing entertaining contests and this matchup looks no different. Hawthorn continue to score heavily from turnover, while GWS are at their most dangerous when games open up. Rather than picking a winner, the total looks the cleaner betting angle.
Carlton Blues vs West Coast Eagles
Best Bet: Nic Newman Over 21.5 Disposals
Carlton are flying under Josh Fraser and should be too strong for West Coast at Marvel Stadium. The side market is priced about right, so the better value comes through Nic Newman, who projects comfortably above his disposal line and should see plenty of the footy across half-back.
Collingwood Magpies vs Richmond Tigers
Best Bet: Collingwood Magpies 40+
This is the strongest line play on the board. Richmond continue to battle hard, but Collingwood are still right in the finals hunt and should control this game from start to finish. The gap between the sides looks big enough to trust the Magpies to cover.
Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows
Best Bet: Under 166.5 Total Points
Showdowns are often tighter and scrappier than expected, and this one shapes similarly. Adelaide deserve favouritism based on recent form, but Port Adelaide have a habit of making these games competitive regardless of ladder position. The under looks the safest angle.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers
Best Bet: Over 173.5 Total Points
North Melbourne should be confident after winning their last two, while Essendon are still capable of finding enough scoring despite their injury issues. The total sits well below the projected number and stands out as one of the better bets of the round.
Fremantle Dockers vs Gold Coast Suns
Best Bet: Over 159.5 Total Points
Fremantle have been the benchmark team of the competition all season and will be difficult to stop at Optus Stadium. Gold Coast still have enough talent to contribute on the scoreboard, making the total the standout play. This is one of the strongest edges in the workbook.