AFL Round 13 Tips 2026: Best Bets, Predictions & Betting Tips

The sheet is screaming one thing this week - points.

Four of the five biggest edges on the entire board come from totals markets, with Adelaide vs Geelong, Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast vs Brisbane and Essendon vs Carlton all projecting well above current bookmaker lines.

That is particularly interesting given season-wide results remain remarkably balanced. Games have finished Over the total 49% of the time this year, but several Round 13 matchups feature attacking teams whose projected scores sit well above market expectations.

Here are the best bets for every AFL Round 13 game.

This shapes as one of the games of the round and the workbook absolutely loves points. The model projects a total close to 190 points, creating one of the strongest edges of the entire weekend.

Adelaide have rediscovered their attacking flair over the past month, while Geelong continue to score heavily through Jeremy Cameron and a midfield that generates plenty of forward-half entries. Both teams should contribute enough scoring opportunities to push this total comfortably over.

Another game where the model sees significant value in the Over. Hawthorn's best football comes when the game opens up, while the Bulldogs possess enough midfield firepower to create plenty of scoring chances themselves.

The projected total is almost 194 total points, which sits well clear of the current market number. Rather than trying to split two evenly matched sides, the totals market looks the cleaner betting angle.

Most punters will naturally gravitate towards Fremantle, but the prediction actually identifies stronger value in the total.

North Melbourne have become far more competitive offensively this season and should contribute their share of scoring, while Fremantle continue to generate opportunities through one of the league's strongest midfields. The model projects almost 190 points, making the Over the preferred play.

The QClash often produces entertaining football and this year's edition looks no different.

The projected total is more than 209 points, making this the second-biggest edge of the round. Gold Coast continue to play an aggressive brand of football under Damien Hardwick, while Brisbane still possess enough attacking talent to contribute heavily even during an inconsistent season.

This is one of the few games where the model prefers a side rather than a total.

West Coast deserve credit for their improvement over the past month, but the model still rates Port Adelaide as the better team by nearly three goals. With the market only asking the Power to cover just over a goal, there appears to be enough value to back the visitors.

Sydney continue to look every bit a premiership contender and the expectation is for them to dominate this matchup.

The model projects a winning margin of 43 points, well above the current line. St Kilda remain competitive, but injuries continue to hurt their depth and the Swans have been ruthless against lower-ranked opposition all season.

Carlton have finally found some momentum, while Essendon still possess enough attacking weapons to play their part in a high-scoring contest.

The projected total is nearly 188 total points and rates the Over as one of the strongest betting opportunities of Round 13. Picking a winner is difficult given Carlton's recent surge and Essendon's unpredictability, making the totals market the safer option.

The King's Birthday clash is traditionally one of the hardest games on the calendar to handicap, but here we are seeing Collingwood with a surprisingly strong edge.

The model makes the Magpies around two goals better than Melbourne, despite the market pricing this as virtually a coin toss. Collingwood's defensive structure continues to hold up under pressure and they look capable of extending their strong recent record against the Demons.